There is no more sacred cow in American foreign policy, and
none more in need of examination, than the notion of credibility. It lies
behind Mr. Trump’s vague rationale for continuing endless war in
Afghanistan—his military advisors presumably believe that too precipitous
abandonment of the failures of our campaign there would punch a hole in our international
credibility, let alone rendering empty and absurd our past sacrifices. Nixon
and Johnson got caught in the same credibility trap in Vietnam.
Turning to North Korea, where the credibility stakes appear
to be even higher, perhaps world-endingly higher, Kim Jung Un and Mr. Trump are
engaged in a risky game of nuclear brinksmanship, even though it seems unlikely
that North Korea would risk attacking the U.S., either with conventional or with
nuclear weapons.
But even if someone more sophisticated and seasoned occupied
the White House, the provocations of North Korea cry out for redefinition. With
nuclear weapons, we humans have created a monster that rhetorical escalation
cannot control: a game of chicken with nukes is a game without winners.
Nuclear conflicts between rivals
intent upon maintaining their credibility will not potentially, but inevitably, lead to apocalypse. Since the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962 the
tail of credibility has wagged the dog of security policy. The weapons
themselves, proxies for our anger, fear, and desire to dominate or at least
survive, have themselves become the drivers of the process and we humans have
become their subservient agents. Within this paradigm, the leaders of nuclear
nations are helpless to choose any other alternative even if they realize the
relationship between credibility and self-destruction. This explains the
inconsistency between the way government officials talk about the issue while
in office and the entirely different way they often talk after they retire.
Only after stepping down as Secretary of State was Henry Kissinger able to
advocate openly for the abolition of nuclear weapons. On his way out the door, Steve Bannon
admitted there was no military option on the Korean peninsula.
Unless we completely rethink what all nine nuclear powers
are asking these weapons to do, namely deter by terror and thus provide an illusion of security, the planet will
be in this place over and over, perhaps with other nuclear powers in other
looming situations of international tension like the Ukraine or Crimea, or the
border tensions between India and Pakistan, or in situations still
unforeseen—as the futile game of "we build/they build" continues with
no good outcome.
The paradigm shift that is
required to prevent the looming end of the world is just as large and difficult
as the 16th Century realization that the sun and not the earth is
the center of our solar system. But
the majority of the world’s nations have already made the shift from regarding
nuclear weapons as the best guarantor of security to seeing them as the biggest
potential agent of their destruction—we saw this when 120 nations signed a U.N.
treaty calling for the outlawing of all nuclear weapons. The United States
boycotted the conference leading to this treaty even while it has a crucial
interest (and for that matter an ongoing obligation as a signatory to the
1970 Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty) in leading the charge away from security
by nuclear credibility.
Our leaders must take the risk,
a risk that will require enormous moral courage, of saying we cannot afford to continue
in our present drift. Instead, we need to respond to the posturing of North
Korea not only with sanctions, but also with measured gestures of good will
that could include such initiatives as committing firmly and explicitly to no
first use, unilaterally reducing the number of warheads in one leg of the
nuclear triad (land-based missiles is what former Secretary of Defense Perry
recommends as ripe for reduction or even elimination with no loss of security),
and, best of all, calling an ongoing international conference on abolition and
supporting, rather than boycotting, that recent historic agreement to prohibit
and abolish nukes signed by 120 nations.
The choice is stark. In the
credibility paradigm, no word coming out of an official’s mouth can be
inconsistent with one nation’s total willingness to annihilate millions of
people just as human as themselves. The challenge is educational: to change
from a mind set that worries about capitulation to other countries to a mind
set that capitulates to reality: unless we all begin to wake up and paddle
together toward the shore, our small planet could go over the waterfall that
awaits us somewhere downstream. The U.S. must admit that credibility is
obsolete, rather than propping it up with threats that raise tensions and could
lead to fatal misinterpretations.
Wouldn't it be wonderful of the United States became credible in its adherence to treaties and international law, for its generosity in humanitarian aid, for its willingness to try non-violent processes of conflict resolution, and for building relationships with adversaries on a personal, human level instead of demonizing them.
Wouldn't it be wonderful of the United States became credible in its adherence to treaties and international law, for its generosity in humanitarian aid, for its willingness to try non-violent processes of conflict resolution, and for building relationships with adversaries on a personal, human level instead of demonizing them.
It is not for nothing that the
great religious sages often evoked a different way of thinking beyond drawing
lines in the sand—a way of thinking that asserts we all are subject at times to
fears that push us into hardened positions. Many of us allege, rightly or
wrongly, that we live in a Christian nation. But how much service do we give to
these foundational critiques of rigid side-taking: “Let he who is without sin
cast the first stone.” “Thou hypocrite, first cast out
the beam out of thine own eye; and then shalt thou see clearly to cast out the mote
out of thy brother's eye.”
“Forgive 70 times 7.” These ancient teachings contain a startling new relevance:
on a spherical planet vulnerable to nuclear disaster, we are all on the same
side.